Looking back last year, the chemical fiber industry is expected to improve in 2015

Last year, China's chemical fiber industry overall production growth fell, while digesting the stock capacity, the industry structure further optimized.

The price of synthetic fiber also fell sharply as oil prices plunged in the second half. However, due to the sharp decline in raw material prices, while the product price decline is smaller than raw materials, so chemical fiber products profit margins expanded.

In 2014, the growth rate of industrial added value of chemical fiber industry was 8.5%. 1~12 months, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 27 billion 730 million yuan, an increase of 11.21%. Industry loss was 18.01%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points, and loss of business losses increased by 9.46%.

Sub sectors, the polyester industry realized a total profit of 10 billion 409 million yuan, an increase of 10.64%, the growth rate increased by 13.71 percentage points. Spandex industry benefits continue to grow, but the growth rate dropped significantly. The staple of artificial fiber is acetate fiber, and viscose fiber industry is difficult to operate.

Last year, the operation of the industry, the main sub sectors of the load differentiation is obvious. Spandex industry average operating rate is the highest, the annual remained at around 95%; polyester staple fiber industry is the worst, only about 65%. The 3 quarter into the off-season, most of the sub industry operating rate declined. Operating rates vary considerably among different enterprises.

Taking polyester filament industry as an example. The average operating rate of polyester filament at the bottom of the two appeared in the Spring Festival last year and the end of July, during the Spring Festival adjustment than in previous years to be deep, in 7 and August due to the off-season demand weakened the operating rate of reduction is relatively large, the minimum fell to 65%. Starting in August, the operating rate gradually increased, and the 4 quarter basically returned to normal levels.

In addition, we have to mention that, in the current market background, slicing spinning enterprises show low competitiveness in the face of the low market. Slice spinning enterprises operating rate of 3~5, such enterprises must also think about how to compete with the melt direct spinning out of a differentiated road.

Sub industry inventory levels are also varied. Polyester filament and polyester staple fiber to the inventory was successful in March, to the end of June inventory at a normal level, 7, August 9, October off-season increased significantly, fell again. The nylon stocks continued to remain high, slightly decreased after September. Although the operation of spandex industry can be achieved, but due to the high operating rate has been maintained, so the stock rose significantly.

Last month, 1~11, the fixed assets investment in the chemical fiber industry showed a trend of slowing down. The number of new projects in the industry decreased by 3.97% year on year, again after 2009 negative growth, the actual completion of investment 101 billion 239 million yuan, an increase of 4.74%, an increase of 16.39 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Among them, the number of new projects in the polyester industry and the actual amount of investment has dropped by about 20% year on year, indicating that the industry investment boom is fading.

Chemical fiber industry investment boom gradually subsided, part of the project construction plan postponed or canceled, but some projects have been completed, but according to market conditions, did not release all capacity. Preliminary statistics, polyester production capacity of 3 million 480 thousand tons, accounting for only half of the planned production project at the beginning of the year.

Plan the project put into operation in 2015, mostly come from the delay in 2014, the total polyester production capacity of about 3 million 400 thousand tons, according to the actual situation, only 50% of the estimated actual production capacity.

Chemical fiber industry profits recovered in the 2 quarter, August profits decreased significantly. 9~12 months, although the price of products continues to decline, but the price of raw materials is also declining, and the price gap of some products has also been enlarged, so profits have increased. 1~11 months, the chemical fiber industry sales margin of 3.85%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points.

Crude oil prices have fallen sharply in the past year, as one of the factors affecting the operation of the chemical fiber industry has been greatly affected. From a global perspective, crude oil prices fell sharply, pile up in excess of requirement, by the end of 2014, WTI oil prices fell to 55 U.S. dollars / barrel, compared to the June high cut. Synthetic fiber materials were lost in cost and prices fell sharply. This has a direct impact on the follow-up trend of related chemical fiber varieties.

In addition, after the change in cotton policy, the gap between short staple and cotton prices narrowed. Affected by domestic cotton policy adjustment, domestic cotton prices fell sharply, and the polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber spreads shrinking, formed a certain price comparative advantages of chemical staple market volume will have a certain impact. But the price liberalization, for the overall competitiveness of China's textile industry upgrade is a major positive, the chemical fiber industry will also benefit from the overall progress of the textile industry.

In addition, last year, the chemical fiber industry mergers and acquisitions have made progress. Relying on market regulation and industry guidance, the capital market has emerged in the same industry assets flow and reorganization, chemical fiber industry mergers and acquisitions have made progress.

According to incomplete statistics, there are 3 listed companies to withdraw from the chemical fiber business. For example, Huarun Jinhua last November 11th changed to SKYWORTH digital, will be held by the 72% of the shares transferred to the Huarun Yantai nylon textile.

2015, the global economy will continue to maintain a weak recovery situation, China's economy to maintain high and moderate steady growth, chemical fiber industry will create a smooth operation of the macro environment.

Steady growth of textile industry, chemical fiber demand is expected to improve. International oil prices may xianyihouyang, the prices of chemical products may have rebounded, but the excess PTA situation, still need to rely on production to stabilize the market, plus the polyester production capacity of polyester products is expected to pressure, the rebound is unlikely. The overall operation of the chemical fiber industry may be slightly better than in 2014.